Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.
The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.
The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2002, 44 Democrats, and 1 independent. (The independent, Jim Jeffords of Vermont, is allied with the Democratic caucus and has voted with Democrats to give them the majority in the past.) The Democrats will need to pick up 6 seats to retake control of the Senate. (Should the Democrats gain 5 seats, the Republicans will retain control of the body because of the affiliation of the Vice President, Dick Cheney.) The Republicans will need to pick up 5 seats to obtain a "working majority", or 60 members (the amount needed to break a filibuster). Of the seats up for election, 15 are held by Republicans, 17 by Democrats, and 1 by the sole independent.
Races to watch
It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the state, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed below, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim. This would also change the party balances listed above.
Retiring Senators
Jon Corzine (D-NJ) – Corzine, currently the most popular elected official in New Jersey, would probably be easily reelected if he ran. However, Corzine has announced his candidacy for the 2005 gubernatorial election. He has no serious Democratic challengers in the primary election and is considered a favorite to win in the general election. If elected, he would likely appoint another Democrat to his Senate seat, possibly Rep. Rob Andrews, Rep. Bob Menendez, or current acting governor and state senator Richard Codey. The presumed interim Senator may be more vulnerable, since he or she will only have held the office for a year before the 2006 election and could face a tough challenge if a popular candidate, possibly the unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor (current serious candidates include Bret Schundler and Doug Forrester, the losing candidates in the 2001 gubernatorial and 2002 Senate races respectively), runs for Senate. Should Corzine lose the governor's race, he could most likely finance another major campaign one year later to retain his current office, but raising the necessary funds for two high-profile statewide runs would certainly be a challenge. State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean announced on March 25, 2005 that he will run for the U.S. Senate seat regardless of who wins the 2005 race for governor.
Mark Dayton (D-MN) – On February 9, 2005, Mark Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. This could be in part due to the Minnesota freshman's unusual decision to close his Capitol Hill office three weeks before the 2004 election, citing a possible terrorist threat. Government officials denied having issued any terror warning, and no other Senator closed his office. As this is now an open-seat race, it will be a highlight of the 2006 election. Former Sen. Rod Grams, defeated by Dayton in 2000, has announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination, as has Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy. On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party side, Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar has filed papers to run for the seat, and children's advocate Patty Wetterling, who was Kennedy's 2004 Congressional opponent, is exploring a possible run. Other potential candidates include Buck Humphrey, grandson of the late Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and Minnesota Supreme Court Justice Alan Page, although neither has announced the intention to run.
Bill Frist (R-TN) – Frist has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006. Frist has hinted at retiring to prepare for a presidential bid, and is widely expected to do so. The most notable Democratic candidate is Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.. On the Republican side, former Rep. Ed Bryant, former Rep. Van Hilleary, Tennessee Republican Party Chairwoman Beth Harwell , and Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker are all running.
Jim Jeffords (I-VT) – Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being elected as a Republican in 2000. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term, possibly for health reasons. Vermont's lone Representative, Bernard Sanders (I), is expected to run with little or no challenge from Democrats for the seat. Former Republican challenger Greg Parke plans to try his hand again.
Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) - Sarbanes announced on March 11, 2005 that he would retire in 2006 rather than run for re-election. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, and even with an open seat, Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume has announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination. Three other Democratic Congressmen -- Ben Cardin, Elijah Cummings, and Chris Van Hollen -- are also considering running, as is Prince George's County state's attorney Glenn Ivey . Reps. Steny Hoyer, Dutch Ruppersberger, and Albert Wynn, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, and Montgomery County executive Doug Duncan, have stated they will not run. Two possible Republican candidates are 2004 Senate nominee/State Sen. E.J. Pipkin and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. Rep. Wayne Gilchrest and Maryland Republican Party Chairman John Kane have declined to run, and Governor Bob Ehrlich will be running for re-election.
Notable Democratic incumbent races
Robert Byrd (D-WV) – Byrd, the oldest and (with the retirement of Strom Thurmond (R-SC) in 2002) the current longest serving incumbent in the Senate, will be 89 by 2006. With his age being a critical factor in the race, his opposition and criticism of Operation Iraqi Freedom has garnered the challenge of Hiram Lewis (R), a captain and JAG officer in the West Virginian National Guard who served in Iraq. In a state that went for President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, this state will certainly prove to be an interesting watch.
Maria Cantwell (D-WA) – Cantwell is drawing fire from progressives in Washington for many of her votes in President Bush's first term, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution and the confirmation of Condoleezza Rice. Possible Republican challengers include Dino Rossi, the party nominee in the controversial 2004 gubernatorial race, and George Nethercutt, who lost decisively to incumbent Senator Patty Murray in 2004. Mark Wilson, who ran as a Green against Patty Murray, is considering challenging Cantwell for the Democratic nomination.
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) – Former First Lady Clinton was elected in 2000 in this traditionally blue state with 55% of the vote, but she was helped by facing Rick Lazio, who was seen as a fill-in for former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. Republican hopes for this seat rest upon recruiting a strong candidate such as Giuliani and using how polarizing Hillary Clinton supposedly is to gain an advantage. However, neither of these big name candidates has decided to challenge Clinton, possibly due to the fact of Clinton's high approval ratings. Colin Powell was another big name suggested by Rep. Vito Fossella, but he has stated that he is retiring from politics. Edward Cox , son-in-law of former president Richard Nixon, is said to have an interest and will likely run against Clinton while William A. Brenner , a popular Sullivan county attorney has officially announced his candidacy. [1]
Kent Conrad (D-ND) – Like Tom Daschle in South Dakota, Conrad faces the problem of being a Democratic senator in an increasingly Republican Great Plains state. Governor John Hoeven, re-elected by a 43-point margin in 2004, is being courted by President Bush to challenge Conrad, and would likely prove a formidable opponent. If Hoeven runs, Conrad will be very vulnerable. Otherwise, he is expected to cruise to reelection as junior Senator Byron Dorgan did in 2004.
Ben Nelson (D-NE) – Nelson, one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, is running for re-election in a state that went for George W. Bush by 35 percentage points. Mike Johanns, the Secretary of Agriculture and former governor, would still presumably be a serious candidate despite his holding a Cabinet post. If Johanns were to run (though he says he won't), he has the option of resigning from his post first, as Mel Martinez did in Florida. On the March 13, 2005, airing of NBC's Meet the Press, Senator Nelson told Tim Russert that he would run for re-election as a Democrat.
Bill Nelson (D-FL) – As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Nelson might draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile. Rep. Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 election, is the presumed favorite in a Republican primary. One Republican poll shows Nelson leading her 46-39.
Notable Republican incumbent races
George Allen (R-VA) – Allen is a popular Senator, but if he faces popular Governor Mark Warner, who will leave office in January 2006, this race would be very competitive.
Conrad Burns (R-MT) – Burns faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party, could make this a competitive race; Burns is also rumored to be considering retirement.
Lincoln Chafee (R-RI) – Chafee, perhaps the most liberal Republican remaining in the Senate, could face a primary challenge from a more conservative Republican. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are Secretary of State Matt Brown and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse . Reps. Jim Langevin and Patrick J. Kennedy have both chosen not to run.
Rick Santorum (R-PA) - Santorum is a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5%. He is also known for his controversial remarks regarding homosexuality. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable, and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania's state treasurer, announced his candidacy on March 5, 2005. Currently, his only primary opponent is college professor Chuck Pennacchio. Polls pitting Casey against Santorum have generally indicated greater support for Casey. [2]
Jim Talent (R-MO) – Talent, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, might face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Unlike most states, Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was elected by a very slim margin, which suggests that he might be vulnerable, but no prominent Missouri Democrats have chosen to challenge him so far.
